2020肺炎疫情影響採礦業受到沉重打擊，煤礦市場很難出現看漲情緒
CP-MG 2020317 10:00
資料來源：煤炭資源網、Miningreview
圖片來源：Wikimedia、Miningreview
疫情下，多數煤炭主產國煤炭供應有所收緊，與此同時市場整體需求也較為有限，國際煤炭市場整體延續供需雙弱態勢。
疫情影響 南非印度等國“封國”
今年以來，全球範圍新冠肺炎疫情爆發，採礦行業也受到了沉重的打擊，包括煤炭貿易、運輸和經營等均受到不同程度的影響。
中國煤炭資源網消息，大型礦商英美資源公司3月27日表示，公司南非動力煤2020年產量預計較2019年的2900萬噸下降100-200萬噸，產量下降主要受到新冠肺炎疫情的影響。
另據悉，南32公司於3月27日宣布，已於3月26日午夜暫停了南非的動力煤出口。據先前的報導，南非總統拉馬福薩在3月23日宣布，為遏制新冠肺炎疫情的擴散，將從3月26日起對全國進行為期21天的封鎖。
疫情對中國國內進口煤市場影響看，當前進口煤市場詢貨依然冷清，受國際疫情影響，印度南非封國，中國下游電廠日耗不足，需求延遲，外盤價格跌至成本線附近暫時穩定，整體成交水平跌幅收窄。
中國煤炭資源網分析師趙靜接受采訪時表示，隨著新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延，各國防疫抗疫工作持續推進，目前全球煤炭主產國中，南非實施為期21天的全民“待在家中”防疫措施、印尼個別礦自主宣布暫停生產等消息，引行業廣泛關注。
“目前南非部分動力煤礦山維持國內電力需求的必要保供業務仍在繼續，供給方面雖有收縮的可能性，但印度、巴基斯坦作為南非動力煤主要需求國，為遏制疫情擴散均有採取不同程度的應對措施，導致部分原計劃流向印度、巴基斯坦等區域的貨源中“漂貨”增多。因此，短期供應端對市場的影響低於需求端。”趙靜指出。
趙靜進一步表示，“而我國作為全球煤炭主要消費國之一，近期進口煤到港量未見明顯波動，據Kpler公司的船運跟踪數據顯示，3月1-22日，中國海運進口煤（包括少量石油焦）到港總量為1842萬噸，此外，有大約800萬噸在運輸途中。”
“但在國內電廠高庫存下需求增量及堆存空間有限、部分進口煤種長時間堆放易燃、國內替代煤種供應相對充裕、國內市場煤價走低等背景下，4月份國內部分電廠或將率先暫停進口煤採購，後續是否有更多電廠跟進，有待觀望。”趙靜補充道。
趙靜表示，綜合來看，疫情影響下，內外部環境複雜多變，加之動力煤需求增速放緩，引發市場對煤價下行的擔憂，同時也加劇了同質化資源價格的競爭。
口岸貿易商對後市不樂觀 海運焦煤需求萎縮
蒙古出口方面看，上周中蒙邊界甘其毛都口岸恢復通關，但要求必須使用集裝箱車輛運輸，上周平均日通關車數50車左右，預計短期內難以恢復至正常水平。由於下游採購低迷，上週部分貿易商報價出現20-30元/噸回落。
另據本網了解，策克口岸於3月28日開始試運行通關，以重車為主，司機不能在中國過夜，28日通關車輛大致在33車左右，大致3000噸左右，目前由於海關檢驗檢疫還未放行，暫時無報價，年前策克口岸馬克A成交在現匯650元/噸，不過口岸貿易商普遍對後市不樂觀，認為策克通關後煤價大概率以跌勢為主。
澳煤方面，受疫情影響，國內及國際市場需求持續走弱，歐洲、印度等國鋼廠陸續落實停產限產，部分鋼廠宣布不可抗力，對海運煤需求萎縮，後期將有更多餘量湧入中國市場，遠期澳煤價格下行壓力顯著。
華安期貨分析師何磊指出，為應對疫情多國宣布“封國”措施，目前看有南非、印度、馬來西亞和印尼等國，措施包括禁止疫情國貨輪進港或需隔離14天等，如果疫情進一步擴散，或將會影響到國內煤炭、鐵礦的進口和鋼材出口，需要進一步關注。
“焦煤供應方面，國內煤礦基本恢復，但海運煤或會迎來運輸的不確定，同時蒙煤進口恢復較慢，供應端給予煤價一定支撐。”何磊表示，“但焦企在低利潤下多按需採購，需求較為乏力，也很難拉伸煤價上漲，主要看疫情對海運的影響。”
總的來看，隨著新冠肺炎疫情在中國大陸和台灣得到有效控制，而日本和韓國的疫情控制也取得了一定進展。路透社專欄作家克萊德•羅素指出，未來數月這些地區的煤炭進口量可能會增加，而世界其他地區經濟下滑或將成為煤炭市場面臨的主要風險。
“如果澳大利亞煤礦沒有因新冠肺炎疫情而被迫關閉，則不會對供應造成衝擊，那麼煤炭價格就不會過分下跌，但在世界經濟出現回暖跡象之前，煤炭市場很難出現看漲情緒。”萊德•羅素認為。
Coal is not going anywhere
source：
(https://www.miningreview.com/coal/coal-in-around-the-world-is-not-going-anywhere-soon)
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global warming.
Cliques are telling industry and government to change and adopt the ‘new energy economy’ or as America’s infamous politician and activist Alexandra Ocasio Cortez calls it, ‘The New Energy Deal’.
This article first appeared in Mining Review Africa Issue 1, 2020
Read the full digimag here or subscribe to receive a print copy here
She states that the only solution to avoid devastation to the world is to accept that renewable energy is the way to go for all energy needs, given that it is becoming so cheap, and so fast that the move to a world that no longer needs oil , natural gas, or coal is unavoidable.
By Xavier Prévost, senior coal analyst at XMP Consulting
The industry’s answer is, as Lars Schernikau puts in:
Coal’s importance will further increase in absolute and relative terms for decades to come
Man-made CO₂ has no effect on global temperatures and combustion of fossil fuels does not influence the weather
We cannot stop the advance of coal; we can only make this process as environmentally sustainable as humanly possible
The Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) in “The Future of Coal” 2007 states:
“Coal is likely to remain an important source of energy in any conceivable future energy scenario. Accordingly, our priority actions are to reduce the CO₂ emissions that coal use produces.”
We strongly believe that it is still sustainable as part of South Africa's energy mix. Contrary to the idea that 'coal is dead', South African reserves and resources are abundant and can provide low-emitting, cost-effective, reliable and sustainable power well into the future, using Clean Coal technologies (CCTs).
Coal mining, power generation, industrial utilisation and allied industries provide more than 700 000 jobs and this figure should increase as more mines and industries open in the future.
It is well recognised that seven times that number is the approximate quantity of dependents on average allied to every person in employment.
One further fact not understood by the public is that, for every mine or industry job, many more jobs are created in support industries. This includes transport services, retail shopping complexes, schools, hospitals, and building-related activities.
For these reasons, coal is the mainstay of our economy. If mines, for example, were to be closed, or become unproductive, many jobs would be lost, increasing unemployment and poverty. Coal supplies 95% of electricity consumed by the country. Electricity from coal is still the cheapest in the world.
Because of the current lack of incentives and funds to implement new projects in the country, production is not growing and because some of the large, older mine’s output is decreasing, our yearly production has not improved for years.
The reality is that the 2020 ‘Coal Cliff’ is here! Some banks do not fund power stations, but funding for mining is still available.
Coal prices, drivers of a successful industry, have regularly increased in the local market, where some grades now show higher prices than similar grades in the export market. Mines are also currently selling more to that market, although the future of Eskom is still uncertain .
Despite Eskom and the renewables industry assertions that they should be used in power generation, we know that, as in the EU, it can only happen at great peril to the economy, so demand for coal remains.
In countries such as China and India, use is growing, because there have no alternatives. A technological new solution will hopefully be found, but it is not here yet.
I am confident about the future of the industry. As Reuters Refinitiv declares in the article:
“Coal may be dying, but growth in the seaborne market says not yet”; it is a bit of a surprise to look at the actual volume of coal being shipped around the globe and see that it is growing so far this year.
In the first seven months of 2019 a total of 870.8 Mt of coal, thermal and coking, was imported from the seaborne market, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.
That’s 2.1% higher than the 852.6 Mt in the same period in 2018. This is not a massive increase, but the fact that the seaborne market is stronger in 2019 does challenge the narrative of a dying industry.
The overall picture for seaborne coal does remain gloomy, but as the growth in the market so far this year shows, coal remains sticky in the global energy system and any death may be lingering.
The local industry will, for many years to come, will be the reliable supplier of cheap inland energy and a large source of profit for big and small producers.
The DMRE 2018 production statistics showed that of the five main commodities; coal, gold, PGMs, diamonds and iron ore, coal was the highest value earner with R145.6 billion (37.5% of the total).
Observing current seaborne and inland coal prices, sizes and qualities available to the markets, let us try to provide an illustration of the status of coal supply and a foretaste of future developments.
Before 2009, inland market prices increased at approximately 10% per annum. From 2011 to 2015 by 8% and then again by 5% in 2016 to 2018.
As transport plays a big role, with logistics and fuel costs ever-growing, mines closer to market have had an advantage when determining delivered price to end-users.
Coal exports, once best money-makers, are now in decline and cannot expect to support the industry as in years past.
In the seaborne market, steam coal prices fluctuate extensively, mainly due to the influence of China. The markets for exports’ displaced tonnages are new developments in NE Asian countries.
Trade to the Pacific, eastern Mediterranean and Indian Ocean will grow, while exports to Europe will be replaced by growth in exports to India, Latin America and other small markets.
Exports in the future will be dominated by low-cost mined coal. Minimum contractual tonnages and sunk costs in rail, barge and terminal will promote exports at very marginal profit levels.
The future shows substantial growth in prices and tonnages in the inland market, while export prices will remain static or decrease. This will generate an almost price equivalence between inland and export, resulting in an accelerated growth of the local market at the expense of exports.
The message for the industry is that, to cope with an expanding local demand and higher future prices, our coal production which has been sluggish since 2013, requires more capital and the implementation of new projects and mines as soon as possible. If this does not happen and soon, alternative imports from new Botswana's mines will reap the benefits.
About the author
Born in La Paz, Bolivia, Xavier Prévost obtained an M.Sc degree in Engineering Geology from the University Of San Andres in 1968, a Diploma in Mining and Exploration from the Montanistische Hochschule in Austria, a Graduate Diploma in Engineering from Wits' Leadership in Coal Technology Programme and an M. Engineering degree from Wits in 2002.
He has been involved in coal since 1977 and established the Geological Survey's National Coal Database (NCDB) which he managed from 1979 until 1989. After a brief spell at General Mining (Genmin) as IT Exploration Manager, Xavier joined the Minerals Bureau – Department of Minerals and Energy in 1995, as Chief Mineral Economist for Coal and Hydrocarbons. In 2007, he was employed as Coal Senior Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a global energy company involved in coal consulting and research in Southern Africa. Since 2009 Xavier has been consulting privately through his company, XMP Consulting.
source：
(https://www.miningreview.com/coal/coal-in-around-the-world-is-not-going-anywhere-soon)
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global warming.
Cliques are telling industry and government to change and adopt the ‘new energy economy’ or as America’s infamous politician and activist Alexandra Ocasio Cortez calls it, ‘The New Energy Deal’.
This article first appeared in Mining Review Africa Issue 1, 2020
Read the full digimag here or subscribe to receive a print copy here
She states that the only solution to avoid devastation to the world is to accept that renewable energy is the way to go for all energy needs, given that it is becoming so cheap, and so fast that the move to a world that no longer needs oil , natural gas, or coal is unavoidable.
By Xavier Prévost, senior coal analyst at XMP Consulting
The industry’s answer is, as Lars Schernikau puts in:
Coal’s importance will further increase in absolute and relative terms for decades to come
Man-made CO₂ has no effect on global temperatures and combustion of fossil fuels does not influence the weather
We cannot stop the advance of coal; we can only make this process as environmentally sustainable as humanly possible
The Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) in “The Future of Coal” 2007 states:
“Coal is likely to remain an important source of energy in any conceivable future energy scenario. Accordingly, our priority actions are to reduce the CO₂ emissions that coal use produces.”
We strongly believe that it is still sustainable as part of South Africa's energy mix. Contrary to the idea that 'coal is dead', South African reserves and resources are abundant and can provide low-emitting, cost-effective, reliable and sustainable power well into the future, using Clean Coal technologies (CCTs).
Coal mining, power generation, industrial utilisation and allied industries provide more than 700 000 jobs and this figure should increase as more mines and industries open in the future.
It is well recognised that seven times that number is the approximate quantity of dependents on average allied to every person in employment.
One further fact not understood by the public is that, for every mine or industry job, many more jobs are created in support industries. This includes transport services, retail shopping complexes, schools, hospitals, and building-related activities.
For these reasons, coal is the mainstay of our economy. If mines, for example, were to be closed, or become unproductive, many jobs would be lost, increasing unemployment and poverty. Coal supplies 95% of electricity consumed by the country. Electricity from coal is still the cheapest in the world.
Because of the current lack of incentives and funds to implement new projects in the country, production is not growing and because some of the large, older mine’s output is decreasing, our yearly production has not improved for years.
The reality is that the 2020 ‘Coal Cliff’ is here! Some banks do not fund power stations, but funding for mining is still available.
Coal prices, drivers of a successful industry, have regularly increased in the local market, where some grades now show higher prices than similar grades in the export market. Mines are also currently selling more to that market, although the future of Eskom is still uncertain .
Despite Eskom and the renewables industry assertions that they should be used in power generation, we know that, as in the EU, it can only happen at great peril to the economy, so demand for coal remains.
In countries such as China and India, use is growing, because there have no alternatives. A technological new solution will hopefully be found, but it is not here yet.
I am confident about the future of the industry. As Reuters Refinitiv declares in the article:
“Coal may be dying, but growth in the seaborne market says not yet”; it is a bit of a surprise to look at the actual volume of coal being shipped around the globe and see that it is growing so far this year.
In the first seven months of 2019 a total of 870.8 Mt of coal, thermal and coking, was imported from the seaborne market, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.
That’s 2.1% higher than the 852.6 Mt in the same period in 2018. This is not a massive increase, but the fact that the seaborne market is stronger in 2019 does challenge the narrative of a dying industry.
The overall picture for seaborne coal does remain gloomy, but as the growth in the market so far this year shows, coal remains sticky in the global energy system and any death may be lingering.
The local industry will, for many years to come, will be the reliable supplier of cheap inland energy and a large source of profit for big and small producers.
The DMRE 2018 production statistics showed that of the five main commodities; coal, gold, PGMs, diamonds and iron ore, coal was the highest value earner with R145.6 billion (37.5% of the total).
Observing current seaborne and inland coal prices, sizes and qualities available to the markets, let us try to provide an illustration of the status of coal supply and a foretaste of future developments.
Before 2009, inland market prices increased at approximately 10% per annum. From 2011 to 2015 by 8% and then again by 5% in 2016 to 2018.
As transport plays a big role, with logistics and fuel costs ever-growing, mines closer to market have had an advantage when determining delivered price to end-users.
Coal exports, once best money-makers, are now in decline and cannot expect to support the industry as in years past.
In the seaborne market, steam coal prices fluctuate extensively, mainly due to the influence of China. The markets for exports’ displaced tonnages are new developments in NE Asian countries.
Trade to the Pacific, eastern Mediterranean and Indian Ocean will grow, while exports to Europe will be replaced by growth in exports to India, Latin America and other small markets.
Exports in the future will be dominated by low-cost mined coal. Minimum contractual tonnages and sunk costs in rail, barge and terminal will promote exports at very marginal profit levels.
The future shows substantial growth in prices and tonnages in the inland market, while export prices will remain static or decrease. This will generate an almost price equivalence between inland and export, resulting in an accelerated growth of the local market at the expense of exports.
The message for the industry is that, to cope with an expanding local demand and higher future prices, our coal production which has been sluggish since 2013, requires more capital and the implementation of new projects and mines as soon as possible. If this does not happen and soon, alternative imports from new Botswana's mines will reap the benefits.
About the author
Born in La Paz, Bolivia, Xavier Prévost obtained an M.Sc degree in Engineering Geology from the University Of San Andres in 1968, a Diploma in Mining and Exploration from the Montanistische Hochschule in Austria, a Graduate Diploma in Engineering from Wits' Leadership in Coal Technology Programme and an M. Engineering degree from Wits in 2002.
He has been involved in coal since 1977 and established the Geological Survey's National Coal Database (NCDB) which he managed from 1979 until 1989. After a brief spell at General Mining (Genmin) as IT Exploration Manager, Xavier joined the Minerals Bureau – Department of Minerals and Energy in 1995, as Chief Mineral Economist for Coal and Hydrocarbons. In 2007, he was employed as Coal Senior Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a global energy company involved in coal consulting and research in Southern Africa. Since 2009 Xavier has been consulting privately through his company, XMP Consulting.