中美貿易戰對稀土行業的影響利弊兼具
The impact of CN-US trade war on the rare earth industry
CP-MG 20180808 13:00
資料來源：中國有色金屬報
圖片來源：Financial Post
新一輪美國擬徵稅清單中幾乎涵蓋了稀土及相關產品
2018年以來，中美貿易戰持續升溫。繼6月15日美國貿易代表辦公室公佈了一份包含1102個商品價值500億美元的製裁清單，並於7月6日開始對其中第一批價值340億美元的中國商品加徵25%進口關稅之後，於當地時間7月10日，美國貿易代表辦公室又公佈了新一輪徵稅清單，計劃對價值2000億美元的中國商品加徵10%關稅，制裁措施預計於8月30日正式落地。
在最新公佈的3290-F8號文件徵稅清單目錄中，幾乎涵蓋了所有的稀土氧化物、化合物、金屬和稀土永磁體，以及稀土的應用終端產品。
美國稀土消費對中國依存度很大。據USGS統計數據顯示，2017年，美國稀土產品進口總量的78%來自於中國，其餘22%分別來自於愛沙尼亞(6%)、日本(4%)、法國(4%)和其他(8% )，但從日本、法國等地進口的稀土產品的初級原料也來源於中國。
從中國海關數據顯示，2017年，從數量上看，中國對美國出口稀土冶煉分離產品1.43萬噸，占我國稀土冶煉分離產品出口總量的27.7%。其中，對美出口稀土金屬238.5噸，占我國稀土金屬出口總量的4.3%，占美國稀土金屬進口總量的46%，進口品種以鑭為主；
對美出口稀土氧化物8089噸，占我國稀土氧化物出口總量的29.6%，占美國稀土氧化物進口總量的90%，進口品種以氧化鑭為主；對美出口稀土化合物5988噸，佔我國稀土化合物出口總量的31.8%，進口品種以碳酸鑭為主。
2017年美國總計從我國進口鑭、氧化鑭和碳酸鑭1.02萬噸，佔其冶煉分離產品進口總量的71.5%。從金額上看，2017年，我國對美國出口稀土冶煉分離產品的金額6837.2萬美元，占我國稀土冶煉分離產品出口總金額的16.4%。此外，2017年，我國對美國出口稀土永磁材料3350.85噸，占我國稀土永磁材料出口總量的11.2%；出口金額近1.5億美元，占我國稀土永磁材料出口總額的10.2%。
2017年我國對美國稀土產品的出口數據來看，美國對我國稀土產品依存度較高的產品有：未混合碳酸稀土、碳酸釔、碳酸釹、釔的其他化合物、鑭的其它化合物、未混合氯化稀土、氧化銪和氧化鑭。
從美國的稀土消費結構上看，主要用於汽車尾氣淨化和石油催化裂化的催化劑是其稀土最大的下游應用領域，佔其稀土總消費量的55%，而應用於催化劑中的稀土元素主要為鑭、鈰等輕稀土元素，這也與它從我國的進口品種相吻合
中美貿易戰對稀土行業利弊兼具
總體來看，我國對美國的稀土冶煉分離產品出口量僅占我國稀土冶煉分離產品出口總量不足30%，出口金額更是不足20%，但對於美國而言，如果追溯至源頭，其稀土的進口幾乎全部來自於中國。
美國國防部發布的《脆弱的美國國防工業基礎》報告指出，美國對中國關鍵材料呈現出“驚人”的依賴，中國是美國稀土、含能材料等的唯一進口來源國。因此，美國對我國稀土出口產品加徵10%關稅，對我國稀土行業影響不大。但會增加美國製造業的原材料成本，對其製造業起不到保護作用，有違其加徵關稅的初衷。
由於美國多年來對中國稀土產品形成的依賴，很難在短期內在國內或中國以外找到相應數量的替代品，即使目前芒廷帕斯礦已試產，但若想重新恢復稀土冶煉分離產業鏈也非朝夕之功，而目前中國以外稀土生產商的供應量也難以提供相應數量的稀土產品。
同時也需關注到，為改變對中國依賴度較高的關鍵礦物及稀有金屬產業供應鏈的被動局面，美國已採取措施積極應對，並開始付諸行動，以期解決關係美國整個工業供應鏈的關鍵礦物供應問題。如，美國特朗普政府已簽署行政令，要求加強美國國內關鍵礦產勘探，簡化出讓和許可程序，擴大國內生產等等。如果這些改革獲得通過，將有利於刺激美國資源勘探領域投資的增加。
我國則出於對優勢資源的保護，可能會增加鎢鉬稀土等資源型行業的環保和稅收成本，這樣既保護了環境，也對稀有戰略資源走向高端加工起到了推動作用。因此，中美貿易戰像一把“雙刃劍”，短期內可能會對稀土行業產生一些不利影響，但長期來看，會倒逼我國稀土產業由初級產品向高端製造業發展。
The new round of US tax collection list covers almost rare earth and related products.
Since 2018, the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up. Following the June 15th, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced a list of 1,102 sanctions worth $50 billion, and on July 6, began to impose a 25% import tariff on the first batch of Chinese products worth $34 billion. Later, on July 10, local time, the US Trade Representative Office announced a new round of taxation list, which plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion US dollars. The sanctions are expected to officially land on August 30.
In the newly published catalogue of the 3290-F8 document tax list, almost all rare earth oxides, compounds, metals and rare earth permanent magnets, as well as rare earth application end products are covered.
Over the years, the United States has developed a high degree of dependence on Chinese rare earths
American rare earth consumption is highly dependent on China. According to USGS statistics, in 2017, 78% of the total imports of rare earth products from the United States came from China, and the remaining 22% came from Estonia (6%), Japan (4%), France (4%) and others (8%). ), but the primary raw materials for rare earth products imported from Japan, France and other places are also from China.
According to China Customs data, in 2017, China's exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to 14,300 tons, accounting for 27.7% of China's total exports of rare earth smelting and separating products. Among them, 238.5 tons of rare earth metals are exported to the United States, accounting for 4.3% of China's total exports of rare earth metals, accounting for 46% of the total imports of rare earth metals in the United States.
The export of rare earth oxides to the United States is 8,089 tons, accounting for 29.6% of China's total exports of rare earth oxides, accounting for 90% of the total imports of rare earth oxides in the United States. Imported varieties are mainly cerium oxide; 5,988 tons of rare earth compounds are exported to the United States. China's total exports of rare earth compounds are 31.8%, and the imported varieties are mainly strontium carbonate.
In 2017, the United States imported a total of 10,200 tons of antimony, antimony oxide and barium carbonate from China, accounting for 71.5% of the total imports of its smelting and separating products. In terms of the amount, in 2017, China's exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to US$68.372 million, accounting for 16.4% of the total export value of rare earth smelting and separating products in China. In addition, in 2017, China exported 3,358.85 tons of rare earth permanent magnet materials to the United States, accounting for 11.2% of China's total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials; the export value was nearly 150 million US dollars, accounting for 10.2% of China's total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials.
According to China's export data on rare earth products in the United States in 2017, the United States has high dependence on rare earth products in China: unmixed rare earth carbonate, barium carbonate, barium carbonate, other compounds of barium, other compounds of barium, unmixed chlorine Rare earth, cerium oxide and cerium oxide.
From the perspective of the rare earth consumption structure in the United States, the catalysts mainly used for automobile exhaust gas purification and petroleum catalytic cracking are the largest downstream applications of rare earths, accounting for 55% of the total consumption of rare earths, and the rare earth elements used in the catalyst are mainly Light rare earth elements such as strontium and barium, which are also consistent with its imported varieties from China.
Sino-US trade war has both advantages and disadvantages for the rare earth industry
Overall, China's exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States account for less than 30% of China's total exports of rare earth smelting and separation products, and the export value is less than 20%, but for the United States, if traced back to the source, its rare earth Imports are almost entirely from China.
According to the report of the "Fragile US Defense Industry Foundation" issued by the US Department of Defense, the United States has an "amazing" dependence on China's key materials. China is the only source of imports of rare earths and energetic materials in the United States. Therefore, the United States imposes a 10% tariff on China's rare earth export products, which has little impact on China's rare earth industry. However, it will increase the cost of raw materials in the US manufacturing industry, and it will not protect its manufacturing industry. It is contrary to its original intention of adding tariffs.
Due to the dependence of the United States on the formation of rare earth products in China over the years, it is difficult to find a corresponding number of substitutes in China or outside China in the short term. Even if the current Mountain Pass mine has been trial-produced, if it wants to restore the rare earth smelting and separating industry chain, It is not a good day's work, and the supply of rare earth producers outside China is also difficult to provide the corresponding amount of rare earth products.
At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the passive situation of changing the supply chain of key minerals and rare metal industries that are highly dependent on China. The United States has taken measures to actively respond and has begun to take action to resolve the key to the entire industrial supply chain in the United States. Mineral supply issues. For example, the Trump administration of the United States has signed an executive order to strengthen the exploration of key minerals in the United States, simplify the transfer and licensing procedures, and expand domestic production. If these reforms are passed, it will help stimulate the increase in investment in the US resource exploration sector.
In China, the protection of superior resources may increase the environmental protection and taxation costs of resource-based industries such as tungsten, molybdenum and rare earth. This not only protects the environment, but also promotes the development of rare strategic resources to high-end processing. Therefore, the Sino-US trade war is like a "double-edged sword", which may have some adverse effects on the rare earth industry in the short term, but in the long run, it will force China's rare earth industry to develop from primary products to high-end manufacturing.